Who will become the head of Adygea this year? Has anyone noticed the change in power in Adygea? All my life in the republic

Political scientists agree that Aslan Tkhakushinov is a lame duck.

Next year the powers of the current head of the region expire, Tkhakushinov will turn 70 years old, it is unlikely that he will retain the position of head of the republic. In the “Kremlin rating” of governors compiled by the Center for Regional Policy Development, Tkhakushinov headed the first risk group. Experts from the Petersburg Politics Foundation and the Minchenko Consulting holding do not see the rating of the head of Adygea as rosy. According to polls, Aslan Tkhakushinov dropped from last year's "troika" to a "three with a minus". Among its strengths, experts call “maintaining stability in the region at an acceptable level, in comparison with the “Middle Caucasian” level,” as well as the fact that competitors do not show high public activity. In addition, the abolition of direct elections, which the current head of the Republic of Armenia resorted to, makes it easier to lobby for the extension of powers on the sidelines without reference to current ratings.

At the same time, experts note that the downside of canceling direct elections may be the lack of transparency in the decision on the candidacy of the head, including for the current republican authorities.

Let us recall that Tkhakushinov participated in direct elections of the head of the region only once - in 2002, receiving 2.6% of voter support. Then gold miner Khazret Sovmen won by a large margin. Tkhakushinov was elected head of the republic twice by the parliament of Adygea: on the proposal of President Vladimir Putin in December 2006 and by President Dmitry Medvedev in December 2011. And this, you see, is not at all like direct elections!

In March 2016, the State Council - Khase of Adygea refused to directly elect the head. As a result, Adygea has become the only subject of the Southern Federal District where voters will not be able to directly elect the head of the subject.

Chairman of the public organization “For the right to choose”, deputy head of “Adyghe Khase” of the Krasnodar Territory Asker Sokht told Novaya Gazeta Kuban that, advocating the return of national elections, they managed to collect more than 6 thousand signatures.

“We made a request to the prosecutor’s office of Adygea, the republican Central Election Commission, and the apparatus of the Southern Federal District. The responses confirmed to us that changes to the Constitution of Adygea regarding direct elections are legal. We will challenge it through the Constitutional Court,” commented Asker Sokht.

According to the ex-deputy of the republican parliament, and now a deputy of the municipal district of Maykop from the Rodina party, chairman of the Union of Slavs of Adygea Nina Konovalova, it is unlikely that Tkhakushinov himself plans to run for a new term:

“There are a lot of people who want it, and there’s a lot of talk now.” Many names are mentioned: Alexander Tkachev’s deputy Dzhambulat Khatuov, General Aitech Bizhev, and Murat Kumpilov. But, of course, Moscow will have the last word,” says Nina Konovalova.

Another contender for the position of head of the republic is the head of the Seversky district of the Krasnodar Territory, ex-deputy of the republican parliament Adam Dzharim, who has not ruled out his participation in the election race in the event of direct elections of the head of the republic. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why social activists began to promote the idea of direct elections in the region. According to our information, Asker Sokht is the cousin of Adam Jarim.

According to the editor of the newspaper “Zakubanye” Vladimir Karataev, there have long been rumors among the people that former Prime Minister Murat Kumpilov is seeking the place of the new head.

– The nephew of the current head has been persistently visiting the offices of Moscow officials for a long time. And the fact that a new law has been introduced in the republic on the election of the head of the republic by deputies of the State Council from candidates proposed by the President of the country is also his work. Elections to the State Council in September of this year ensured the presence in it of an absolute majority of people loyal to Kumpilov. His election as chairman is further confirmation of this. Among the deputies of parliament there are practically no people in any opposition to the current authorities here. And this is also the result of the active work of the prime minister, who took the branches of most parties under personal control. The goal of the efforts undertaken by the ruling clan is quite clear - to maintain control over the republic at any cost.

– Before recommending specific candidates for approval to the State Council of Adygea on behalf of the President, the feds ordered a sociological survey among the residents of the republic. The main questions asked by VTsIOM sociologists in focus groups concerned the effectiveness of the outgoing head of the republic, the well-being of citizens and their attitude towards possible candidates for a new appointment. In particular, they asked people’s opinions about Murat Kumpilov and Dzhambulat Khatuov. If local residents know about Khatuov from information from friends who live in Armavir and generally characterize him well, then most people know Kumpilov’s activities. What are people talking about? About a serious drop in earnings, about corruption, clanism and the total ethnicization of management structures, about the inability or unwillingness of federal law enforcement agencies and courts to positively influence management structures, about the lack of contact between society and the authorities, about the persecution of people who dare to tell the truth, Karataev commented.

If Murat Kumpilov is “courting” the offices of Moscow officials, as Karataev believes, then Dzhambulat Khatuov, according to Novaya Gazeta Kuban, has been “invited” to the Kremlin more than once to discuss this topic. It is possible that Dzhambulat Khizirovich will give an answer in the near future. 2017 will show what it will be like.

Since the 1990s, Adygea has been considered an “easy” constituency: here, in particular, a place for nomination was given to member of the CPSU Central Committee Vitaly Vorotnikov, Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the RSFSR, whom Anatoly Sobchak later mockingly called “Adyghe,” Gazeta.ru reports.

Andrei Vorobyov, governor of the Moscow region, also began his active political career in Adygea. Before becoming a State Duma deputy from Adygea in 2003, he represented the executive power of Adygea in the Federation Council of the Russian Federation.

The latest elections to the State Duma once again confirmed this. Vladislav Reznik, one of the heavyweights of several Duma convocations, who until that time had nothing to do with Adygea, was elected to the State Duma in a single-mandate constituency from Adygea. And this was, most likely, one of the last tasks assigned to Aslan Tkhakushinov by the federal center.

The head of the subject has changed in Adygea: this is the first region of Russia where a change of head took place in the new year. Due to the expiration of the second term of office, the now ex-head of the republic, Aslan Tkhakushinov, left his post. Chairman of the local parliament Murat Kumpilov was appointed acting head. The corresponding decree was signed by President Vladimir Putin.

The head of state received in the Kremlin the former head of Adygea Aslan Tkhakushinov and his successor in this post, Murat Kumpilov. Vladimir Putin thanked Aslan Tkhakushinov for his work.

Aslan Kitovich, I know that you have chosen a replacement for yourself. How many years have you worked? - the president addressed the head of Adygea.

Aslan Tkhakushinov said that this year marks 10 years since he headed Adygea. He worked with his successor Murat Kumpilov for eight years.

Good economic indicators (in the republic - Izvestia): he led the economy, he is aware of all matters. They wrote anonymous letters about us the same way. They worked the same way. “I am very grateful to you,” Aslan Tkhakushinov addressed the president, “for your joint work and constant support.” I call you a perpetuum mobile, that is, a person who is everywhere all the time. I'm surprised how you manage to withstand such a load. This is sambo, probably judo.

Exactly,” the head of state confirmed.

Acting head of the republic Murat Kumpilov is 43 years old, he was born in the same village of Ulyap as Aslan Tkhakushinov. Over the years he worked in the tax field, served as deputy prime minister and headed the government of Adygea. Since October last year, he has been the chairman of the State Council - Khase of Adygea.

You've been in the republic almost your whole life, right? Were you involved in taxes?” the president turned to Kumpilov.

Yes, after the institute - the treasury, after that already in the tax service, after - the cabinet of ministers: deputy prime minister, prime minister, now - chairman of the parliament, - explained the acting head of Adygea.

There is no need to tell you anything about the republic; you yourself know everything well, you know the tasks that the republic faces from the point of view of development, the tasks that people expect to be solved. You are an experienced person. I hope that this tandem will continue with you and function effectively,” the president said.

The acting head of the republic said that among the priority tasks is the socio-economic development of the region.

Experts note that the change of power in Adygea is planned.

There was an option that Tkhakushinov would transfer power to his successor after the first term. But in the end, everything went according to plan, a replacement was prepared at the end of the second term, no political problems will arise, believes Rostislav Turovsky, vice-president of the Center for Political Technologies.

Since last year, Adygea, like a number of national regions of the North Caucasus, switched to indirect elections of the head of the republic. According to Rostislav Turovsky, this format helps avoid tension in the region.

There is a special situation in Adygea. The region is not formally part of the North Caucasus Federal District, but is close to it in culture. Moreover, it is national, but the majority of it is Russian. Power lies with the Adyghe minority. Under these conditions, direct elections could lead to the victory of the Russian candidate, which would not suit part of the Adyghe elite, or a conflict could arise within the Adyghe elites, the expert believes.

We are completing our review of the regions where presidential elections are coming up. Today the last region in line is the Republic of Adygea.

The term of office of the head of the republic, Aslan Tkhakushinov, who held this post for 10 years, expired on January 13. On the eve of this date, January 12, Tkhakushinov turned to Vladimir Putin with his resignation, becoming the first regional head to leave this year. On his recommendation, the president appointed the former prime minister of Adygea, speaker of the republican State Council-Khase, Murat Kumpilov, who is Tkhakushinov’s cousin, as acting head of the republic. It is Kumpilov who will become the “main candidate” in the upcoming elections in September.

It is worth noting that Adygea is the only one of the 15 regions where they will elect heads, in which the elections will be “indirect.” Let us recall that Tkhakushinov was appointed for both of his terms by deputies of the State Council-Khase of the republic on the proposal of the president. Before that, in 2002, he took part in the direct presidential elections in Adygea, but showed a very modest result (2.6%), losing to Khazret Sovmen. And only after Sovmen’s resignation, in December 2006, was he appointed head of the republic. After Tkhakushinov’s appointment for a second term, in 2012, the State Council-Khase of the Republic of Adygea adopted amendments to regional legislation, according to which the election of the head of the republic became popular. As expected, in 2017 they will be held in exactly this format. However, in March 2016, these amendments were canceled. So this September, the head of Adygea will again be elected only by deputies.

Of course, this leaves its mark on the upcoming elections. This means that we can’t expect a broad campaign as such in the republic. At the same time, this makes life difficult for parties that would like to nominate their candidates: it is one thing to campaign in order to attract the attention of the “broad masses of the people” and quite another to try to reach a small number of deputies. Based on this, it can be assumed that not all parties traditionally participating in gubernatorial elections can nominate candidates. Especially if you take into account how the 48 seats available in the republican parliament are distributed: United Russia - 38, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party - 4 each, and SR - 2.

Another factor complicating the nomination of candidates is that a “Varyag” is unlikely to be a candidate for the post of head of Adygea: in accordance with regional legislation, the head of the republic must, if not be an Adyghe, then at least know the Adyghe language. It is doubtful that such candidates will be found anywhere outside the region. And in Adygea itself, the opposition does not have many prominent representatives who could show at least some results. In addition, we should not forget about such a social feature of the region as clanism - “outsiders” are extremely rarely allowed here, both in business and in politics.

So far, political parties have not named their candidates. And this is understandable: the region is quite specific, and the choice of a representative for elections and, in general, the question of whether it is worth taking part in them must be approached carefully. Most likely, some names will be named closer to May, after all the consultations have been completed - and in the case of Adygea there will probably be more of them than with other regions.

According to the head of the republican executive committee of the ONF, Yuri Gorokhov, there has been no election activity in Adygea so far: “No one has openly declared their desire to participate in the fight for the post of head of Adygea. It’s still early. But as for the election programs that possible candidates will come up with, difficulties may arise here. People are tired of listening to promises. They need concrete actions. Therefore, It seems to me that they will support someone who shows real actions."

Political scientist and publicist Andrei Epifantsev believes that the outcome of the elections in Adygea is predictable: “There will be no tough fight in the elections for the head of Adygea. The situation is already clear. It will be Murat Kumpilov. Formally, all requirements will be met. There will be two more candidates, obviously unsuitable. There will be no competition. The Parliament of Adygea will vote in full for Kumpilov.<...>
First of all, because Kumpilov is a political heavyweight in the republic. This is objective and completely real. And he has no real competition."

According to sociologist, candidate of philosophical sciences, researcher at the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences Zaur Khachetsukov, the election situation in Adygea will become more or less clear in the spring: “Everything is quiet so far. The head of the republic has recently changed, so now there are cautious clarifications of the balance of power.<...>So now everyone is sitting and waiting to see where everyone should go next. And everyone is busy looking for a place in the new system rather than the upcoming elections.<...>The main actions, in my opinion, are forecast for mid-spring."

Well, something like this.

Full version of the material with detailed expert comments

The Parliament of Adygea decided to elect the head of the republic not through direct elections, but by voting of deputies. Most likely, this means that after the expiration of the second term of office of the current head of Adygea Aslana Tkhakushinova in January next year, the candidacy of the new leader of the republic will be proposed by the federal center. Tkhakushinov and his team managed to achieve some success in the region’s economy, but the current leadership of Adygea has long been criticized for a high level of clanism.

The last "matryoshka"

The current head of Adygea Aslan Tkhakushinov He is one of the old-timers of the Russian gubernatorial corps - he has held his post since 2006. Tkhakushinov’s second term of office expires next year, but there is clearly no hope for a third, since the head of Adygea has long crossed the retirement age limit (he will turn 70 in 2017).

However, in full accordance with the political traditions of the North Caucasian republics, Aslan Tkhakushinov had long ago prepared the candidacy of his potential successor. Five years ago, when Tkhakushinov was reappointed for a second term, the current prime minister of the republic began to be called in this capacity Murata Kumpilova, who is brought by the nephew of her leader.

43-year-old Kumpilov has a reputation as a person to whom Adygea owes much of a number of economic successes achieved in recent years. According to official data, from 2007 to 2015, the small republic managed to attract about 140 billion rubles of investment. This is largely explained by the geographical location of Adygea - a “matryoshka” subject within the Krasnodar Territory. Proximity to one of the richest regions of Russia is a natural advantage of Adygea, which it has clearly demonstrated more than once. For example, the IKEA company located its Mega shopping complex not in Krasnodar, but on the opposite bank of the Kuban - in Adygea.

The agro-industrial complex and tourism are developing quite dynamically in Adygea - two traditional industries for the population of this republic. According to the agricultural production index, Adygea last year took first place among the regions of the Southern Federal District, and the number of tourists and excursionists who visited the republic reached 359 thousand people, or 10% more than in 2014. Trips to Adygea have become a popular weekend route for residents of not only the Krasnodar Territory, but also the Rostov Region and Stavropol Territory.

At the same time, Adygea does not face the problem of excess labor, which is typical for other national subjects of the North Caucasus, since a significant part of the republic’s population works in the Krasnodar Territory. There is also no significant extremist underground or interethnic conflicts here (the Circassians account for approximately a quarter of the republic’s population, and about 64% of the population are Russians).

Big brother's hand

All this, ultimately, contributed to the fact that the question of the possible annexation of Adygea to the Krasnodar Territory is practically no longer raised. Although a few years ago, during the period of active liquidation of economically insolvent “matryoshka” subjects (such as the Ust-Orda and Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrugs), this topic was raised more than once. Moreover, one of the supporters of the merger of the two regions was the leadership of the Krasnodar Territory - back in 2004, the then Kuban governor Alexander Tkachev said that this step would be economically feasible. However, this did not happen - Adygea managed to remain the last “matryoshka” among the Russian regions.

But last year, the republic faced another prospect from its “big brother.” After the Krasnodar region headed Veniamin Kondratyev, and Alexander Tkachev was appointed Minister of Agriculture, his first deputy was actually left out of work Dzhambulat Khatuov, ethnic Circassian. His entire career - first in the structure of consumer cooperation, and then in power - was connected with the Krasnodar Territory, but after leaving the post of first vice-governor of Kuban, Khatuov was immediately talked about as a possible future head of Adygea.

The key argument in favor of his candidacy could be precisely the distance from local clans, as well as excellent connections with the federal center - it was Dzhambulat Khatuov who oversaw the Olympic construction in Sochi on behalf of the administration of the Krasnodar Territory. Actually, it was the corruption generated by clanism and the lack of lobbying leverage at the federal level that were named among Aslan Tkhakushinov’s key weaknesses in the “survival ratings” of governors of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation. True, at the same time the authors of these studies noted that political stability in the republic, the absence of negative news from the region and the passivity of potential competitors are in favor of Tkhakushinov.

Democracy of limited application

However, the early resignation of the head of Adygea, the possibility of which rumor makers spoke about last fall, did not take place, and Dzhambulat Khatuov returned to Alexander Tkachev’s team in February of this year, having received the appointment of Deputy Minister of Agriculture. However, according to political scientists, this by no means eliminated the issue of a fundamental change of command in Adygea, and evidence of this was the decision of the republic’s parliament that its new head would be chosen by deputies.

“Adygea, of course, could not make such a serious decision on its own. — senior researcher at the Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences is convinced Naima Neflyasheva. — There is no doubt that every line of the bill was agreed upon with Moscow. Behind this is Moscow’s intention to see someone from outside the republic as the next head of Adygea. I am sure that among the candidates presented to the State Council of Adygea there will be people who are not connected with Adygea by their political biographies.”

Adygea’s adoption of the parliamentary model of head elections, which has already been approved in almost all the republics of the North Caucasus, really looks like a necessary measure, if we remember that Aslan Tkhakushinov publicly advocated general elections. “In Adygea in 2017 there will be direct elections for the head of the region, so the population has the final say,” Tkhakushinov said in January last year. He diplomatically did not name the name of the potential successor, but noted that during the 8 years of his leadership in the republic, “a good efficient team of professionals was formed; there are worthy people capable of leading the republic.”

If we proceed from the hypothesis that the abolition of direct elections in Adygea was initiated by the federal center under an “external” candidate, then the figure of Dzhambulat Khatuov may well continue to be considered as a possible contender. However, the famous Krasnodar political scientist, deputy of the Kuban Legislative Assembly Nikolai Petropavlovsky doubts this, based on the specifics of Khatuov’s new position.

“As far as I know, as Deputy Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, Khatuov now faces a monstrous amount of work, comparable to what he had during the preparation for the Olympics,” says Petropavlovsky. “I very much doubt that these tasks will be completely resolved before Aslan Tkhakushinov’s term of office expires, and abandoning what has been started halfway in order to switch to another front of work is not in the style of Dzhambulat Khizirovich.”

However, Nikolai Petropavlovsky believes that for the Krasnodar Territory it is not at all important according to what scheme the head of Adygea will be elected, as well as who will become it. The main thing, the political scientist believes, is what model of interaction with the Krasnodar Territory the new head of Adygea will choose, since in a significant number of aspects these two regions represent a single whole.

Political scientists agree that Aslan Tkhakushinov is a lame duck

Next year the powers of the current head of the region expire, Tkhakushinov will turn 70 years old, it is unlikely that he will retain the position of head of the republic. In the “Kremlin rating” of governors compiled by the Center for Regional Policy Development, Tkhakushinov headed the first risk group. Experts from the Petersburg Politics Foundation and the Minchenko Consulting holding do not see the rating of the head of Adygea as rosy. According to polls, Aslan Tkhakushinov from last year's "troika" has moved to a "three with a minus". Among its strengths, experts call “maintaining stability in the region at an acceptable level, in comparison with the “Middle Caucasian” level,” as well as the fact that competitors do not show high public activity. In addition, the abolition of direct elections, which the current head of the Republic of Armenia resorted to, makes it easier to lobby for the extension of powers on the sidelines without reference to current ratings.

As Novaya Gazeta Kuban wrote, in March 2016, the State Council - Khase of Adygea refused to directly elect the head. As a result, Adygea has become the only subject of the Southern Federal District where voters will not be able to directly elect the head of the subject.

Chairman of the public organization “For the Right to Choose”, deputy head of “Adyge Khase” of the Krasnodar Territory Asker Sokht told Novaya Gazeta Kuban that, advocating the return of national elections, they managed to collect more than 6 thousand signatures.

According to the ex-deputy of the republican parliament, and now a deputy of the Maykop City Municipal District from the Rodina party, chairman of the Union of Slavs of Adygea Nina Konovalova, it is unlikely that Tkhakushinov himself plans to run for a new term:

There are many people who want it, and there is a lot of talk now. Many names are mentioned: Alexander Tkachev’s deputy Dzhambulat Khatuov, General Aitech Bizhev, and Murat Kumpilov. But, of course, Moscow will have the last word, says Nina Konovalova.

According to the editor of the Zakubanye newspaper, Vladimir Karataev, there have long been rumors among the people that former Prime Minister Murat Kumpilov is seeking the position of the new head.

The nephew of the current head has long and persistently been visiting the offices of Moscow officials. And the fact that a new law has been introduced in the republic on the election of the head of the republic by deputies of the State Council from candidates proposed by the President of the country is also his work. Elections to the State Council in September of this year ensured the presence in it of an absolute majority of people loyal to Kumpilov. His election as chairman is further confirmation of this. Among the deputies of parliament there are practically no people in any opposition to the current authorities here. And this is also the result of the active work of the prime minister, who took the branches of most parties under personal control. The goal of the efforts undertaken by the ruling clan is quite clear - to maintain control over the republic at any cost.

Before recommending specific candidates for approval to the State Council of Adygea on behalf of the President, the feds ordered a sociological survey among the residents of the republic. The main questions asked by VTsIOM sociologists in focus groups concerned the effectiveness of the outgoing head of the republic, the well-being of citizens and their attitude towards possible candidates for a new appointment. In particular, they asked people’s opinions about Murat Kumpilov and Dzhambulat Khatuov. If local residents know about Khatuov from information from friends who live in Armavir and generally characterize him well, then most people know Kumpilov’s activities. What are people talking about? About a serious drop in earnings, about corruption, clanism and the total ethnicization of management structures, about the inability or unwillingness of federal law enforcement agencies and courts to positively influence management structures, about the lack of contact between society and the authorities, about the persecution of people who dare to tell the truth, Karataev commented.